文献：Lee IM et al.Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy.Lancet 2012;380:219-229.
運動不足の非感染性疾患に対する人口寄与割合（PAF）を算出、運動不足解消による平均寿命を推計した。運動不足は冠動脈疾患の6％、2型糖尿病の7％、乳癌・結腸癌の各10％に寄与していると算出。運動不足の25％低減で毎年130万人超の死亡が回避可能と予測した。運動不足解消で、世界の平均寿命は0.68年延長と推定された。
Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy
Original Text
Background
Strong evidence shows that physical inactivity increases the risk of many adverse health conditions, including major non-communicable diseases such as coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and breast and colon cancers, and shortens life expectancy. Because much of the world's population is inactive, this link presents a major public health issue. We aimed to quantify the effect of physical inactivity on these major non-communicable diseases by estimating how much disease could be averted if inactive people were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy at the population level.
Methods
For our analysis of burden of disease, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with physical inactivity using conservative assumptions for each of the major non-communicable diseases, by country, to estimate how much disease could be averted if physical inactivity were eliminated. We used life-table analysis to estimate gains in life expectancy of the population.
Findings
Worldwide, we estimate that physical inactivity causes 6% (ranging from 3·2% in southeast Asia to 7·8% in the eastern Mediterranean region) of the burden of disease from coronary heart disease, 7% (3·9—9·6) of type 2 diabetes, 10% (5·6—14·1) of breast cancer, and 10% (5·7—13·8) of colon cancer. Inactivity causes 9% (range 5·1—12·5) of premature mortality, or more than 5·3 million of the 57 million deaths that occurred worldwide in 2008. If inactivity were not eliminated, but decreased instead by 10% or 25%, more than 533 000 and more than 1·3 million deaths, respectively, could be averted every year. We estimated that elimination of physical inactivity would increase the life expectancy of the world's population by 0·68 (range 0·41—0·95) years.
Interpretation
Physical inactivity has a major health effect worldwide. Decrease in or removal of this unhealthy behaviour could improve health substantially.
Funding
None.
